Record temperatures, droughts, war, COVID, bans on movement and meeting…it’s been a witches’ brew of events. Is nature telling us that humans have overburdened the planet?
Not necessarily, says Amlan Roy, author of “Demographics Unravelled” and our guest on the latest episode of the New Money Review podcast.
The global population can still grow further without triggering more damage, say consensus forecasts: technological advances and better education could let us add 2bn more humans by 2050, according to our current best estimates.
The study of traits amongst whole populations—demographics—is the single most important subject that no one pays attention to, says Roy, citing management guru Peter Drucker.
technological advances and better education could let us add 2bn more humans
But when people do pay attention to demographics, most then miss the point, Roy says in the podcast.
That’s because we all tend to focus on a single statistic—age—only.
“An 80-year-old in Japan is different from an 80-year-old in Sweden, Italy, Greece or Germany,” says Roy, citing the five countries in the world with the oldest average population.
“Consumption is different in those countries, workers are different, education is different and institutions are different.”
We need to research and understand these broader traits of humans to see what drives economies and financial markets, Roy says in the podcast.
Roy, an economist by training, is a former investment banker. He is a research associate at the London School of Economics and a fellow at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
Listen in to a 30-minute discussion of:
- Why fewer workers are supporting more over-80s
- Why birth rates in both developed and developing countries are falling
- When the global population will peak
- How to meet the sustainability challenge
- Why we all need a hug
- Why different countries need different immigration models
- The importance of bridging the gender gap
- Why demographics drive GDP growth, inflation, debt and asset prices
- The pernicious effect of negative interest rates
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