{"id":6697,"date":"2021-11-02T15:25:54","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T15:25:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/?p=6697"},"modified":"2021-11-23T11:05:46","modified_gmt":"2021-11-23T11:05:46","slug":"why-does-bitcoin-cost-more-in-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/02\/why-does-bitcoin-cost-more-in-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Why does bitcoin cost more in the future?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last year commodity giant Glencore pocketed $1.3bn through a clever trade it made when oil prices briefly went negative<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Amidst the coronavirus shock to global trade flows, tankers idled, crude oil storage facilities were full and traders couldn\u2019t give the world\u2019s most important raw material away.<\/p>\n

Glencore bought up<\/a> the dirt-cheap crude, stored it in massive tankers it had recently acquired and sold the oil for a huge profit a few months later.<\/p>\n

(the trader\u2019s exploit is one of many similar stories recounted in Javier Blas\u2019s and Jack Farchy\u2019s excellent \u201cthe World for Sale<\/a>\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n

Location and financing in commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n

Often, the price for the future delivery of a commodity differs from that available when taking possession right now.<\/p>\n

The divergence between the future price and the current (or \u2018spot\u2019) price reflects fundamental factors like storage, financing and insurance costs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

From the recent negative oil price we can see why storage matters\u2014but why is the same true for bitcoin?<\/p>\n

Bitcoin contango costs ETFs 8% a year<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recent data from Coinbase subsidiary Skew show that bitcoin futures follow an upward-sloping price curve (a situation known as \u2018contango\u2019).<\/p>\n

The market price for trading the cryptocurrency one year in the future was around $7,000 per coin higher than the price for dealing right now (the \u2018spot price), Skew\u2019s data showed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This difference between the cash price of bitcoin and its futures price\u2014called the futures \u2018basis\u2019\u2014can be expressed as an annual interest rate.<\/p>\n

At the end of last week, according to Skew, the basis was around 15 percent at popular cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges, such as Binance, Deribit and FTX, and somewhat lower\u2014around 8 percent\u2014at futures exchange CME.<\/p>\n

That basis is critical for anyone planning to buy a US-listed bitcoin ETF. For example, anyone holding the newly listed Proshares bitcoin futures ETF<\/a> will experience the CME basis as a sizeable drag on performance\u20148 percent a year, on top of the ProShares ETF’s near-1 percent annual fee.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

According to Mark Jones, short-term interest rate quant trader at B2C2, ETF demand explains some of the current pricing of bitcoin futures.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are two key market participants on the CME,\u201d Jones told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cTraditional finance (\u2018TradFi\u2019) is on the bid, largely in the form of the newly approved bitcoin futures ETFs, and they consume a very large percentage of futures open interest,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Five days after launching its bitcoin ETF on the Nasdaq exchange, ProShares applied to the CME<\/a> for an increase in the position limits that limit its ETF\u2019s holdings of bitcoin futures.<\/p>\n

Two days later, the CME increased its position limits<\/a> to accommodate both the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and another new bitcoin futures fund, the Valkyrie Funds Bitcoin Strategy ETF.<\/p>\n

The other major category of bitcoin futures trader on the CME, said B2C2\u2019s Jones, is firms specialising in futures\/spot arbitrage.<\/p>\n

\u201cCrypto funding arbitrageurs trade both sides,\u201d said Jones, \u201censuring that the futures basis between centralised crypto exchanges and the CME is broadly in-line over the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n

Headline bitcoin futures basis is misleading<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the B2C2 trader, the basis between futures and swaps traded on crypto-native derivatives exchanges and the CME futures is smaller in reality than the headline 7 percent a year.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter accounting for the respective costs of funding margin, the CME futures basis is more aligned with crypto-native exchanges than it appears upon first glance,\u201d Jones said.<\/p>\n

He pointed out that CME imposes a relatively larger margin requirement\u2014around 40 percent of the position size\u2014than crypto-native exchanges, where the margin may be as little as 5 percent.<\/p>\n

Credit risks probably explain the remainder of the basis, said Jones.<\/p>\n

Cryptocurrency traders dealing with the CME have recourse to the exchange\u2019s central clearing counterparty, which guarantees trades in case a market participant defaults.<\/p>\n

There is no such central clearing in the crypto-native derivatives markets.<\/p>\n

Instead, crypto derivatives traders rely on insurance funds offered by the exchanges themselves. These have been depleted in the past, forcing the exchanges to \u2018haircut\u2019\u2014impose a mandatory reduction on\u2014winning positions.<\/p>\n

\u201cCredit risk is harder to price,\u201d said Jones.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll else being equal, market participants would rather post margin and accrue profit and loss at the CME than at the crypto exchanges. This likely accounts for the remainder of the basis differential,\u201d Jones told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The current bitcoin contango may not last, however: in early 2020 bitcoin futures prices regularly traded below the spot price<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sign up here<\/a> for the New Money Review newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n

Related content from\u00a0New Money Review<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The wild world of crypto derivatives<\/a><\/p>\n

Did Binance cover up May 19 liquidations?<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin arbitrage opportunities and risks<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last year commodity giant Glencore pocketed $1.3bn through a clever trade it made when oil prices briefly went negative. Amidst the coronavirus shock to global trade flows, tankers idled, crude […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6696,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1333,1461,2068,1064,1494,1752,2069,2070],"class_list":{"0":"post-6697","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-b2c2","9":"tag-binance","10":"tag-bitcoin-futures-etf","11":"tag-cme","12":"tag-deribit","13":"tag-ftx","14":"tag-mark-jones","15":"tag-proshares"},"yoast_head":"\nWhy does bitcoin cost more in the future? - New Money Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"why it (currently) costs more to buy bitcoin for future delivery than it does to buy the cryptocurrency right now\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/02\/why-does-bitcoin-cost-more-in-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why does bitcoin cost more in the future? 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