{"id":6277,"date":"2021-04-07T15:15:50","date_gmt":"2021-04-07T15:15:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/?p=6277"},"modified":"2021-04-19T14:21:31","modified_gmt":"2021-04-19T14:21:31","slug":"is-blockfi-a-weak-point-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/07\/is-blockfi-a-weak-point-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Is BlockFi a weak point for bitcoin?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Could a bitcoin arbitrage-gone-wrong have broader consequences for the cryptocurrency market?<\/p>\n

\u2018GBTC\u2019, the US-listed Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, is a true bitcoin whale, owning more than 3 percent of the cryptocurrency in issue. Its current holdings of 654,000 bitcoin are not far short of Satoshi Nakamoto\u2019s never-touched, 1-million-coin stash.<\/p>\n

According to Max Boonen, director and founder at cryptocurrency market maker B2C2, GBTC is notable for other reasons too.<\/p>\n

GBTC arbitrage drove crypto lending<\/strong><\/p>\n

In a recent interview with New Money Review<\/em><\/a>, Boonen said a past arbitrage opportunity linked to GBTC has helped promote the borrowing and lending industry that now surrounds cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n

\u201cFirms like BlockFi, which offer interest on cryptocurrency deposits, were using the past premium on GBTC to help fund their business,\u201d Boonen said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey could borrow bitcoin from their clients (with or without collateral), put the bitcoin into GBTC, hold the GBTC shares for the six-month lock-up period, then sell them on the secondary market with a premium attached,\u201d Boonen said.<\/p>\n

BlockFi offers interest rates starting at 6 percent<\/a> to clients willing to deposit bitcoin with it.<\/p>\n

During 2020, GBTC shares traded at a premium to the fund\u2019s net asset value (NAV) of 10-40 percent, offering substantial profits to those able to exploit it.<\/p>\n

But the arbitrage wasn\u2019t risk-free. It only worked if the GBTC premium was still there when your individual lock-up period ended.<\/p>\n

And that premium has now disappeared. Since February this year, GBTC has been trading at a discount to NAV.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Wave of GBTC shares to exit lock-up from April 18<\/strong><\/p>\n

Now, some of the past subscribers to GBTC are about to face the consequences of this arbitrage trade gone wrong.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the coming weeks, a lot of GBTC shares are coming out of lock-up. It will be interesting to see what happens there,\u201d Boonen said.<\/p>\n

The shares Boonen is referring to are those purchased during a GBTC buying spree that started in October last year, when the bitcoin price was just over $10k, less than 20 percent of its current level.<\/p>\n

Starting October 18, 2000, GBTC saw cumulative inflows of around 158,000 bitcoin (worth $8.8bn at current prices) over an eleven-week period.<\/p>\n

These fourth-quarter purchases of GBTC\u2014the most sustained bout of buying since the Grayscale bitcoin trust was created\u2014are circled in red on the chart. They will come out of the lock-up period between April 18 and the last week of June.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sitting on a discount<\/strong><\/p>\n

What will those who bought GBTC as part of an arbitrage now do?<\/p>\n

One option is to sell now and crystallise a loss. Another is to hold on and hope for the discount to disappear.<\/p>\n

Those in the latter camp may be left waiting. As my former colleague Dave Nadig wrote recently<\/a>, GBTC has the disadvantage\u2014when compared to an equity CEF\u2014of lacking a means to tether its price to its net asset value.<\/p>\n

Normally, as CEF discounts increase, buyers move in to gain cheap exposure to the underlying asset, helped by the prospective income on offer.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of CEFs have significant yields, and as discounts appear, those yields go up,\u201d Nadig said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor many CEF investors, that\u2019s all that matters. But bitcoin doesn\u2019t yield anything. It simply is. So that CEF cushion doesn\u2019t exist.\u201d<\/p>\n

DCG faces conflicting incentives<\/strong><\/p>\n

Digital Currency Group (DCG), which owns the Grayscale unit that runs GBTC, gained authorisation a month ago to buy up to $250m of the trust\u2019s shares<\/a>, a move clearly aimed at stopping the discount from blowing out further.<\/p>\n

On the same day, DCG said it was stopping any further inflows to GBTC<\/a>, capping the trust\u2019s holdings of bitcoin.<\/p>\n

And, earlier this week, DCG said it was committed to turning GBTC into an ETF<\/a>, a step that would in theory remove any discount or premium.<\/p>\n

Converting the closed-end fund to an ETF would force the GBTC price to trade at a level that reflects its holdings of bitcoin.<\/p>\n

But the US securities regulator has yet to approve any bitcoin ETFs, and there\u2019s no timetable for it to do so.<\/p>\n

There are forces working in the opposite direction\u2014against the removal of the discount\u2014too.<\/p>\n

DCG is currently raking in a massive $760m a year in fees from investors. And any discount to net asset value must disincentivise investors thinking of selling GBTC shares.<\/p>\n

Risks to crypto lenders from failed arbitrage<\/strong><\/p>\n

What would happen if DCG\u2019s stated aim of reducing the discount failed?<\/p>\n

A prolonged GBTC discount\u2014or, even worse, a further widening\u2014could put BlockFi\u2019s business model\u2014and others like it\u2014under strain.<\/p>\n

However, BlockFi said in March that its position in GBTC was ‘substantially less’ than 20 percent of its $15bn total assets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

B2C2\u2019s Boonen doesn\u2019t think that a failure of a firm conducting a deposit-taking and lending business in cryptocurrency would necessarily have a systemic impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt wouldn\u2019t be great, but I\u2019m not sure it would be a disaster either,\u201d he told me last week.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn cryptocurrency, we don\u2019t yet have long daisy chains of credit exposures. The people with credit exposure to BlockFi are largely retail investors with relatively small positions. Institutions, as far as I\u2019m aware, don\u2019t have major exposure to this firm.\u201d<\/p>\n

Others, however, see more significant risks.<\/p>\n

A now-deleted website called DitchBlockFi.com (archived version here<\/a>) said in March that BlockFi had over $2bn in unsecured loans to proprietary trading firms.<\/p>\n

DitchBlockFi\u2019s anonymous authors\u2014they described themselves as \u2018a group of people including employees at major crypto lending desks, investors in the crypto space and DeFi founders\u2019\u2014said BlockFi\u2019s activities were putting the broader cryptocurrency market at risk.<\/p>\n

\u201cCrypto is about transparency, openness and reinventing finance without the flaws and moral bankruptcy inherent in banking and tradfi (traditional finance). BlockFi\u2019s practices are anti-crypto and we created this website to protect users of BlockFi and the crypto community from losing money,\u201d DitchBlockFi said.<\/p>\n

\u201cA single default can easily wipe out BlockFi\u2019s equity base and put them into insolvency,\u201d DitchBlockFi warned.<\/p>\n

This statement, however, was made a few days before BlockFi announced on March 11 it had raised $350m in a new, Series D funding round.<\/p>\n

B2C2’s Max Boonen told New Money Review<\/em> last week that the rising bitcoin price could have put further strain on cryptocurrency lenders’ business models.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you borrow bitcoin when it\u2019s $20k and suddenly it\u2019s $50k, you have to top up your dollar collateral by a lot\u2014assuming you are collateralising your clients\u2019 deposits. The pain has been maximised both by the GBTC premium collapsing and the bitcoin price rising,\u201d Boonen said.<\/p>\n

Sign up here<\/a> for the New Money Review newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n

Related content from New Money Review<\/span><\/p>\n

BitGo enters crypto-asset lending market<\/a><\/p>\n

Inside the crypto casino<\/a><\/p>\n

The wild world of crypto derivatives<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Could a bitcoin arbitrage-gone-wrong have broader consequences for the cryptocurrency market? \u2018GBTC\u2019, the US-listed Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, is a true bitcoin whale, owning more than 3 percent of the cryptocurrency […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6276,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1013,1053,1026,1011],"tags":[1985,1988,1989,1987],"class_list":{"0":"post-6277","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-account","8":"category-featured-1","9":"category-latest-slider","10":"category-value","11":"tag-blockfi","12":"tag-boonen","13":"tag-ditchblockfi","14":"tag-gbtc"},"yoast_head":"\nIs BlockFi a weak point for bitcoin? 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