{"id":6127,"date":"2021-02-15T16:42:30","date_gmt":"2021-02-15T16:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/?p=6127"},"modified":"2021-02-23T14:32:17","modified_gmt":"2021-02-23T14:32:17","slug":"jack-bogle-was-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/15\/jack-bogle-was-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Jack Bogle was right"},"content":{"rendered":"

The warnings of the man who popularised index investing have proved eerily prescient.<\/p>\n

Jack Bogle, late founder of the world\u2019s second-biggest asset manager, Vanguard, was notoriously opposed to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which he called \u2018the greatest marketing innovation of the 21st<\/sup> century<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

ETFs, invented in the early 1990s, now manage a collective $8trn in assets.<\/p>\n

But Bogle\u2019s anti-ETF stance was not due to the underlying investment policy of these funds; after all, most ETFs track indices, like the index mutual funds that Bogle pioneered after he set up Vanguard in 1975.<\/p>\n

And Bogle wouldn\u2019t have minded anyone buying ETFs and locking them away.<\/p>\n

Instead, his gripe was with the easy trading that ETFs enabled. Basically, he did not trust investors to use their own judgment sensibly.<\/p>\n

\u201cInvestors are not acting in their own best interests\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cWe have evidence\u2014strong evidence\u2014that exchange-traded funds, because of the timing that goes on in them, are not acting in the best interest of investors; or, that investors are not acting in their own best interests, which may be a better way to put it,\u201d Bogle said in a 2009 interview<\/a>, thirteen years after he retired as Vanguard CEO.<\/p>\n

The ex-founder\u2019s views\u2014which he repeated consistently over the succeeding years\u2014didn\u2019t go down well with those who replaced him at the head of the firm. Vanguard launched its own ETF business in 2008.<\/p>\n

\u201cI can\u2019t say anything else other than I disagree with Jack,\u201d Vanguard\u2019s then-CEO, Bill McNabb, said in 2015, responding to an editorial Bogle had published in the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs investors trade stocks with one another, the zero-sum game (before costs) of striving to beat the market becomes a loser\u2019s game (after costs are deducted). The only sure winners are the brokers and dealers of Wall Street,\u201d Bogle had written.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis seems to be his most concerted attacked on ETFs,\u201d McNabb said in response.<\/p>\n

\u201c[But] ETFs are a great investment innovation, lowering the cost of investing for millions of individuals around the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bogle, who passed away two years ago at the age of 89, can no longer share his views.<\/p>\n

But if he had seen the recent events surrounding share-trading app RobinHood<\/a>, with its retail gambling frenzy exacerbated by social media, it\u2019s hard to imagine he wouldn\u2019t have added, \u201cI told you so\u201d.<\/p>\n

Just a few weeks ago, before it was forced by the US equities clearing house to rein in its punters, RobinHood helped contribute to the busiest trading day in Wall Street history.<\/p>\n

RobinHood rose to prominence by promising its clients zero-commission stock trading via mobile apps. But the winners from its technology are clear. It\u2019s not the users of the app that are succeeding, it\u2019s the intermediaries.<\/p>\n

Just as the users of Facebook were never told that they are the product, the small traders using RobinHood to punt on a near-defunct electronic goods retailer called GameStop probably weren\u2019t aware that their data footprint was a goldmine to third parties.<\/p>\n

But the numbers proving the case are stark.<\/p>\n

For 2020 as a whole,\u00a0RobinHood alone made over $600m from market makers as a reward for providing order information from its retail clients<\/a>. And, according to the Financial Times,\u00a0Wall Street trading firms paid almost $3bn last year<\/a> for information on such orders.<\/p>\n

Fast thinking can lead to out-of-control gambling<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bogle\u2019s central argument\u2014that if allowed, human beings will gamble too much\u2014is backed up by academic theory.<\/p>\n

According to Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, human brains combine two systems of thinking, one fast and one slow.<\/p>\n

Fast thinking is associative, intuitive, automatic, metaphorical, and impressionistic and can lead to out-of-control gambling.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the slow-thinking brain that, if it\u2019s allowed to take over, will impose more rational decision-making and lead to awareness that gambling, especially with leverage, is likely to lose you all your money.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for humans, our brains are easily dominated by fast thinking. Kahneman and his fellow-researcher Amos Tversky set out a variety of rules of thumb that we often use unconsciously, but which cause us to make sub-optimal decisions.<\/p>\n

These rules of thumb\u2014called heuristics<\/a>\u2014include biases that any self-reflective gambler will be aware of.<\/p>\n

The anchoring bias causes humans to attach meaning to a totally random point, such as a stock market level or exchange rate. The sunk cost fallacy causes people to display irrational determination to justify an original decision, instead of cutting their losses.<\/p>\n

In recent years, near-zero interest rates and repeated central bank interventions to prop up asset prices have led to an explosion of gambling.<\/p>\n

This is true both in the traditional financial markets of shares and bonds, and to an even greater extreme in the new cryptocurrency markets, where traders have proved willing to apply leverage of 100-to-one to already volatile underling assets<\/a>, with a predictable outcome.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe didn’t try to beat Wall Street at its game. He simply led investors away from a game that they cannot win.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While apps like RobinHood have proved false friends to the retail investor, claiming to democratise finance while leading many people to financial ruin, the founder of Vanguard saw the game for what it was\u2014and said so.<\/p>\n

\u201cBogle was the one person who succeeded in \u2018sticking it to the man\u2019 and changed the investment industry for the better,\u201d Jason Hsu, founder of Rayliant Global Advisors, said on LinkedIn yesterday<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe didn’t try to beat Wall Street at its game. He simply led investors away from a game that they cannot win and helped them invest their wealth in a way that minimised self-harming driven by behavioural biases.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sign up here<\/a> for the New Money Review newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The warnings of the man who popularised index investing have proved eerily prescient. 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