{"id":5929,"date":"2020-11-19T13:00:46","date_gmt":"2020-11-19T13:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/?p=5929"},"modified":"2020-12-09T13:21:54","modified_gmt":"2020-12-09T13:21:54","slug":"stablecoin-design-is-difficult-and-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/19\/stablecoin-design-is-difficult-and-dangerous\/","title":{"rendered":"Stablecoin design is difficult and dangerous"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Too strict a reserve policy makes asset-backed money of limited use. But too lax a policy may be the first step on a slippery path to destruction.<\/p>\n<p>Since US President Nixon <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/24\/carney-attacks-us-monetary-hegemony\/\">ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971<\/a>, we\u2019ve been living through a 50-year experiment with \u2018fiat\u2019 money\u2014money backed by nothing except the say-so of the state issuing it.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps in reaction, in recent years there\u2019s been <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/26\/wheres-my-money-wirecard-tether-and-stablecoins\/\">rapidly rising interest in the idea of asset-backed money<\/a>\u2014money supported by a reserve of something else (such as gold, silver or even other fiat money).<\/p>\n<p>Digital asset-backed money units are often called <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/09\/the-stablecoin-race\/\">\u2018stablecoins\u2019<\/a>\u2014a term invented to distinguish this type of money from volatile cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Stable money is useful: unlike bitcoin, for example, you\u2019d want to use a stablecoin for payment, or to price your goods and services.<\/p>\n<p>But designers of asset-backed money face a difficult choice: do they insist that the reserve backing is 100 percent at all times, or do they allow some flexibility in the backing ratio? This apparently technical detail proves to be a surprisingly important one.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Lessons from Amsterdam<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/10\/private-stablecoins-wont-work-as-money-says-the-bis\/\">a working paper they released last week<\/a>, three economists at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Jon Frost, Hyun Song Shin and Peter Wierts, draw on the history of the Bank of Amsterdam, the dominant financial institution of the 17<sup>th<\/sup> and 18<sup>th<\/sup> centuries, to illustrate the point.<\/p>\n<p>According to Frost, Shin and Wierts, the Bank of Amsterdam initially made some sensible changes in its money\u2019s design, allowing for some credit within the system while keeping the gold and silver backing largely intact.<\/p>\n<p>But over time, under political pressure and seduced by potential monetary gains, the Bank of Amsterdam\u2019s managers started backing their money by risky debt rather than gold and silver.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the late 1770s, under the economic pressures generated by a new war with the English, the Bank embarked on a period of more serious divergence from its charter by lending on a more substantial scale, in a sustained and non-transparent way,\u201d Frost, Shin and Wierts write in their paper.<\/p>\n<p>By 1820, the market value of Bank of Amsterdam money had plummeted and the bank was closed. Its stablecoin experiment had failed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Demand for credit is not stable<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It might seem sensible for an asset-backed money system to have 100 percent reserve cover at all times\u2014or even more.<\/p>\n<p>Modern currency board systems, such as those in Hong Kong and Bulgaria, indeed follow this principle.<\/p>\n<p>They maintain a stable exchange rate to an anchor currency\u2014in Hong Kong\u2019s case, the US dollar and in Bulgaria\u2019s, the euro\u2014by maintaining backing assets that are larger than the amount of money in circulation.<\/p>\n<p>But such a rigid approach limits the usefulness of asset-backed money as a settlement instrument, say Frost, Shin and Wierts.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>a rigid approach limits the usefulness of asset-backed money<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Why? The authors use the 18<sup>th<\/sup> century activities of the Dutch East India company (<em>Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie<\/em>, or \u2018VOC\u2019), the dominant global trading firm of its time and the prototype for modern corporations, to explain.<\/p>\n<p>They argue that, had the Bank of Amsterdam\u2019s monetary system not had some in-built flexibility, it would have been unable to serve its largest client, the VOC, which was involved in much of the global trade of the time.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank was also the centre of an increasingly important, interconnected web of international credit relationships, the BIS economists say.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTypically, [VOC] ships would arrive in Europe between May and July, and then would be kitted out for their outward journey in August to January,\u201d Frost, Shin and Wierts write in the paper.<\/p>\n<p>The trading company\u2019s ships, which had to round the Cape of Good hope to travel between Europe and Asia, needed to avoid the stormiest times of year to make their voyages.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe VOC faced a seasonal pattern in its financing need for working capital purposes, where its demand for credit peaked in the winter months, after ships had departed but before the arrival of goods to sell from Asia, Oceania and Africa,\u201d say Frost, Shin and Wierts.<\/p>\n<p>The resulting, \u2018saw-tooth\u2019 pattern of borrowing by the VOC is visible in a chart published in the BIS paper.<\/p>\n<p><em>The Dutch East India company\u2019s seasonal demand for credit<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5928\" src=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/seasonal-credit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"595\" height=\"317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/seasonal-credit.jpg 1257w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/seasonal-credit-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/seasonal-credit-1024x545.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/seasonal-credit-768x409.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Amsterdam met the VOC\u2019s demands for short-term credit by increasing the trading firm\u2019s \u2018unencumbered\u2019 accounts at the Bank.<\/p>\n<p>At the outset, following the Bank of Amsterdam\u2019s creation in 1609, depositors had the right to turn up at its doors and ask for their deposits to be paid out in gold and silver.<\/p>\n<p>But if you had an unencumbered account, you couldn\u2019t do this\u2014you only had a contractual right to the amount of precious metal you owned.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why settlement liquidity matters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Settlement liquidity, say Frost, Shin and Wierts, means the ability to execute payments promptly. In turn, this allows others in the payments system to fulfil their obligations.<\/p>\n<p>But, they go on, preventing temporary overdrafts in settlement accounts would detract from the ability of money to serve one of its principal functions\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/category\/payment\/\">as a means of payment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201csettlement liquidity emerges as a key source of potential inefficiency\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The problem is particularly acute when the payment system in question handles huge volumes of transactions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor modern large-value payment systems that transact in real time\u2014so-called real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems\u2014imposing a cash-in-advance requirement can impose inefficient delays and possible \u2018gridlocks\u2019 in payments,\u201d Frost, Shin and Wierts say.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, \u201csettlement liquidity emerges as a key source of potential inefficiency\u201d in payments systems, say Frost, Shin and Wierts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A question of trust <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, the durability of a monetary system comes down to a question of trust.<\/p>\n<p>It was a test the Bank of Amsterdam initially passed\u2014observers in other countries, like Adam Smith and Voltaire, were huge admirers of the Bank during the 18<sup>th<\/sup> century\u2014but then failed.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, by lending money outright to the Dutch East India company, the Bank\u2019s managers were already breaching its founding charter, say Frost, Shin and Wierts.<\/p>\n<p>Nor was the lending disclosed\u2014a critical lapse in communication between insiders and the general public and one reminiscent of many later market scandals.<\/p>\n<p>As we witness an increasing number of private stablecoin experiments\u2014from <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/07\/untangling-tether\/\">Tether<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/09\/the-stablecoin-race\/\">JP Morgan coin, Fnality<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/18\/zuckerberg-launches-his-global-currency-project\/\">Libra<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/12\/makerdao-goes-bust-threatening-ethereum\/\">Dai<\/a>\u2014the lessons of the Bank of Amsterdam have never been more relevant, say Frost, Shin and Wierts.<\/p>\n<p>For the designers of these stablecoins, there\u2019s one critical trade-off to consider, they say. And there\u2019s no right or wrong answer.<\/p>\n<p>If stablecoin managers stick to their governance rules, say Frost, Shin and Wierts, for example by insisting on full backing for the stablecoins at all times, their money will have limited use in facilitating payments for others.<\/p>\n<p>But if they don\u2019t stick to the rules, they may be enticed to expand their lending over time, causing the failure of the system as a whole.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201ca vivid lesson in how a central bank that loses public trust can push its luck too far\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>Central banks\u2019 balance sheets balloon in size in 2020<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5927\" src=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/cb-assets.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"541\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/cb-assets.jpg 1362w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/cb-assets-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/cb-assets-1024x560.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/cb-assets-768x420.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 541px) 100vw, 541px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>While Frost, Shin and Wierts argue for the critical role of the central bank in addressing payments imbalances, they also fire a warning at public sector providers of money.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yardeni.com\/pub\/peacockfedecbassets.pdf\">According to Yardeni Research<\/a>, the world\u2019s major central banks have inflated their collective balance sheets from $19trn to over $27trn in less than a year, reflecting the efforts to offset the economic impact of coronavirus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Bank of Amsterdam\u2019s failure is a vivid lesson in how a central bank that loses public trust can push its luck too far, beyond the threshold for failure,\u201d Frost, Shin and Wierts say.<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/du6eTr\">Sign up here<\/a> for the New Money Review newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/blubrry.com\/newmoneyreview\/\">Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Too strict a reserve policy makes asset-backed money of limited use. But too lax a policy may be the first step on a slippery path to destruction. Since US President [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5926,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1012,1053,1026,1014,1],"tags":[1786,1085,1912,1908,1909,1349,1910,1343,1907,1149,1130,1835,1420,1906,1911],"class_list":{"0":"post-5929","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-exchange","8":"category-featured-1","9":"category-latest-slider","10":"category-payment","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"tag-bank-of-amsterdam","13":"tag-bis","14":"tag-fnality","15":"tag-hyun-song-shin","16":"tag-jon-frost","17":"tag-jpm-coin","18":"tag-liquidity","19":"tag-payments","20":"tag-peter-wierts","21":"tag-rtgs","22":"tag-settlement","23":"tag-stablecoins","24":"tag-tether","25":"tag-voc","26":"tag-wholesale"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stablecoin design is difficult and dangerous - New Money Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Asset-backed money is increasingly in vogue. 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But designers of new digital stablecoins face one critical design choice. 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