{"id":5274,"date":"2020-04-09T12:18:52","date_gmt":"2020-04-09T12:18:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/?p=5274"},"modified":"2020-05-20T08:58:58","modified_gmt":"2020-05-20T08:58:58","slug":"breakdown-in-social-cohesion-causes-hyperinflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/09\/breakdown-in-social-cohesion-causes-hyperinflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Breakdown in social cohesion causes hyperinflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Earlier today, in an attempt to combat the business slump caused by the coronavirus, the UK tore up the economics textbooks by embracing direct central bank financing of the government\u2019s deficit.<\/p>\n

The move is highly controversial since the conventional way to finance a gap between government expenditures and revenues is to sell government bonds to investors.<\/p>\n

According to theory, financing the deficit by means of an overdraft at the central bank is a big step down the slippery slope towards hyperinflation.<\/p>\n

But whether this decision leads to runaway price rises in the UK may depend on the ability of the government to maintain social cohesion, according to one leading student of past inflations.<\/p>\n

This morning the Bank of England issued a joint press release with the UK Treasury<\/a>, saying it would allow a temporary increase in the government\u2019s overdraft limit, which is called the \u2018ways and means facility\u2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will provide a short-term source of additional liquidity to the government if needed to smooth its cashflows and support the orderly functioning of markets, through the period of disruption from Covid-19,\u201d the Bank said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny use of the ways and means facility will be temporary and short-term,\u201d the Bank added.<\/p>\n

\u201cMonetary financing has been linked in other countries to runaway inflation\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

However, the move contradicted a statement made only three days ago by the new Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey.<\/p>\n

Writing in the Financial Times<\/em> on Monday<\/a> (subscription required), Bailey noted that past moves to allow direct central bank financing of government deficits had caused a loss of control over prices.<\/p>\n

In the UK, the Bank is required by law to deliver price stability, which is defined as an annual inflation target of 2 per cent.<\/p>\n

\u201cMonetary financing\u2014a permanent expansion of the central bank balance sheet with the aim of funding the government\u2014has been linked in other countries to runaway inflation,\u201d said Bailey.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is because it could undermine a central bank\u2019s ability to control monetary conditions over the medium term. Using monetary financing would damage credibility on controlling inflation by eroding operational independence. It would also ultimately result in an unsustainable central bank balance sheet and is incompatible with the pursuit of an inflation target by an independent central bank.\u201d<\/p>\n

In his article, Bailey argued that what he called the \u2018UK\u2019s institutional safeguards\u2019 rule out a direct financing approach, a position that now appears to have been discarded.<\/p>\n

Other policymakers have been calling for a more relaxed approach to the direct central bank financing of deficits.<\/p>\n

Last month Adair Turner, a former head of the UK\u2019s financial services regulator, said that for countries with national currencies, direct monetary financing of fiscal deficits would be a feasible option.<\/p>\n

This approach would provide strong stimulus without increasing the public debt burden, Turner said.<\/p>\n

In a 2016 blogpost<\/a>, former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke also suggested that direct deficit financing by central banks could be justified as a last resort.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s precisely in the most difficult or extreme circumstances, in which other monetary and fiscal tools might be unavailable or ineffective, that Money-Financed Fiscal Programs might be considered,\u201d Bernanke said.<\/p>\n

\u201cRapid inflations are not so much the consequence of war as of civil war or serious social unrest\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

However, according to a leading historian of monetary inflation, past episodes of direct central bank financing of government deficits, often undertaken during wartime, may have different outcomes, depending on the degree of cohesion in society.<\/p>\n

Many political leaders have used wartime rhetoric<\/a> to describe the common battle against the coronavirus.<\/p>\n

\u201cContrary to quite widespread belief, rapid inflations are not so much the consequence of war as of civil war or serious social unrest,\u201d Forrest Capie, professor of economic history at London\u2019s City University, wrote in his book \u2018Major Inflations in History\u2019, published in 1991.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe reason for this is that while governments often print money recklessly in wartime, being united against the common enemy, the populace is persuaded to behave in a patriotic fashion and to abide by a variety of controls, and so inflation is constrained,\u201d Capie wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, with civil disorder or the extreme case of civil war, the established government tries to placate the disaffected by printing money,\u201d said Capie.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the same time the division in society results in a sharp fall in revenue,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t miss any more New Money Review content:\u00a0sign up here<\/a> for our\u00a0newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Earlier today, in an attempt to combat the business slump caused by the coronavirus, the UK tore up the economics textbooks by embracing direct central bank financing of the government\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1013,1053,1011],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5274","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-account","8":"category-featured-1","9":"category-value"},"yoast_head":"\nBreakdown in social cohesion causes hyperinflation - New Money Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/09\/breakdown-in-social-cohesion-causes-hyperinflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Breakdown in social cohesion causes hyperinflation - 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