{"id":5173,"date":"2020-03-17T19:50:52","date_gmt":"2020-03-17T19:50:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newmoneyreview.com\/?p=5173"},"modified":"2020-03-29T15:54:24","modified_gmt":"2020-03-29T15:54:24","slug":"gold-and-bitcoin-primed-for-a-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/17\/gold-and-bitcoin-primed-for-a-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and bitcoin primed for a rebound?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investors seeking refuge from the equity market meltdown in gold and bitcoin have so far faced losses. But this is a buying opportunity in both assets, say market observers.<\/p>\n

Amidst the coronavirus-induced panic, the dollar price of gold fell by 12 percent, from $1687 to $1486, within the space of seven trading days, starting March 6.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s price fared dramatically worse, dropping 42 percent over the same period, from $9122 to $5175 a coin.<\/p>\n

The stocks of both gold and bitcoin are limited\u2014gold supply increases at around 1 percent a year<\/a>, while bitcoin\u2019s annual inflation rate will fall to under 2 percent after May\u2019s halving of the block reward<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In theory, both assets should therefore offer some protection from feverish central bank money printing.<\/p>\n

In the space of a few weeks, the US central bank has cut interest rates from 1.5 percent to zero, committed to a new $700bn asset purchase programme and offered over $2trn in new loans to the seized-up wholesale money markets.<\/p>\n

\u201cOccasionally you have to raid the piggy bank\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So why aren\u2019t the two safe haven assets\u2014the yellow metal and its new digital competitor\u2014performing better?<\/p>\n

According to gold expert Ross Norman, the recent gold sell-off reflects a desperate search for cash amidst collapsing prices for other assets.<\/p>\n

\u201cGold is highly liquid and if you need cash quickly it\u2019s a ready source of funds. Gold was also up a lot last year and people prefer to book a gain rather than a loss. Occasionally you have to raid the piggy bank,\u201d Norman told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese are unprecedented conditions. People are just selling everything. It may just be a matter of time before markets are suspended,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

On March 17, US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said the country’s markets could start to operate with reduced trading hours<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to Charles Morris, a fund manager, long-time gold observer and founder of cryptocurrency research firm ByteTree, current market conditions are reminiscent of 2008.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are throwing in the towel,\u201d he told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cBonds are now selling off too and inflation is falling. This happened in 2008, but gold then doubled in price afterwards.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2008, the gold price fell from $1,000 per troy ounce early in the year to $775 by the time Lehman collapsed in September. When ABN Amro was nationalised a month later, the precious metal\u2019s price had fallen to around $730. But by early 2010 gold had rebounded to over $1,200.<\/p>\n

\u201cA long-term buy in bitcoin starts here\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What about gold’s digital asset rival, bitcoin?<\/p>\n

Earlier this year Morris was a lone bear, citing rising miner inventory as a reason for caution on the bitcoin’s price prospects<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cA cryptocurrency with low demand would have a thin market to sell into,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a result, [bitcoin miners\u2019] inventory would keep rising. In crypto, value creation comes from building a vibrant and widely distributed network. If the majority of the coins are held by the miners, then there is no value creation as there is no network.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Coinmetrics<\/em><\/p>\n

However, Morris believes that the recent downdraft in bitcoin prices offers an entry point for investors.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf my thesis is correct, a long-term buy in bitcoin starts here,\u201d Morris told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

On March 17, he went into further detail in a post on the ByteTree site<\/a>.<\/p>\n

“Our model considers transaction value dollars, velocity, fees in dollars, and miners\u2019 inventory. All positions are tilting towards bullish,” Morris said.<\/p>\n

“With a price that is below our estimated fair value and network demand strengthening, the case for buying bitcoin does not get much stronger than this. That said, volatility is high and external factors can\u2019t be ignored. COVID-19 is brutal and things are changing rapidly,” he said.<\/p>\n

“Yet we believe bitcoin will come out of this stronger,” he added.<\/p>\n

“After all, the network is roughly three times stronger than it was at the end of the last bear market in early 2019.”<\/p>\n

According to Danny Masters, chairman of digital asset manager Coinshares, the near-certainty of further massive central bank interventions will help non-inflationary assets.<\/p>\n

\u201cBoth gold and bitcoin have been trashed in recent weeks,\u201d he told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut as we come out of this crisis, I think the environment is really positive for both. These are the only two financial instruments that really have limited supply,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t miss any more New Money Review content:\u00a0sign up here<\/strong><\/a> for our\u00a0newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

Click here<\/a> for a full list of episodes of the New Money Review podcast: the future of money in 30 minutes<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors seeking refuge from the equity market meltdown in gold and bitcoin have so far faced losses. But this is a buying opportunity in both assets, say market observers. 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