{"id":4800,"date":"2019-11-05T14:00:30","date_gmt":"2019-11-05T13:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newmoneyreview.com\/?p=4800"},"modified":"2019-12-05T09:05:11","modified_gmt":"2019-12-05T08:05:11","slug":"cash-isnt-disappearing-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/05\/cash-isnt-disappearing-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Cash isn\u2019t disappearing yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite the rapid rise of digital payments, cash isn\u2019t on its way out yet.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the key message from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which published its annual \u2018Red Book\u2019 statistics on payments and financial market infrastructures earlier this week.<\/p>\n

The BIS hosts the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), one of the major policymaking bodies for the world\u2019s financial system.<\/p>\n

But while cash is still king, says the BIS, its role is morphing. And it\u2019s changing in a way that poses a dilemma for governments and central banks.<\/p>\n

There may be two reasons\u2014both uncomfortable for governments\u2014for the hoarding of high-value cash<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In its latest Red Book, the BIS cites data showing that, with a few exceptions, such as Switzerland, the EU and Singapore, the use of small-denomination notes and coins is falling around the world.<\/p>\n

Instead of carrying around lots of small change, customers are switching to more convenient mobile and card-based payment methods.<\/p>\n

But while customer demand for low-value cash is dropping, there is growing demand for high-denomination notes, says the BIS, with pronounced rises in Japan, Switzerland and the US.<\/p>\n

There may be two reasons\u2014both uncomfortable for governments\u2014for the hoarding of high-value cash: negative rates and illicit activity.<\/p>\n

Japan and Switzerland have pursued negative official interest rate policies for years, incentivising savers to hold banknotes rather than cash in bank accounts, where they face a steady erosion of their capital.<\/p>\n

These opposing forces appear to set up a clash.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year the IMF suggested<\/a> that governments wishing to impose negative interest rates on their domestic economies could counteract the population\u2019s desire to hoard cash.<\/p>\n

Instead of just issuing cash to the general public, the IMF said, central banks could also issue e-money.<\/p>\n

The central bank could then set a negative rate on the e-money, said the IMF, causing its capital value to fall over time.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the same time, shops would start advertising prices in e-money and cash separately, just as shops in some small open economies already advertise prices both in domestic and in bordering foreign currencies.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCash would thereby be losing value both in terms of goods and in terms of e-money, and there would be no benefit to holding cash relative to bank deposits,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the number of US $100 bills in circulation has more than quadrupled in the last two decades<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The US central bank says growing overseas demand for its currency could reflect geopolitical instability. Others say the growth in usage of the $100 bill may signal its widespread use in global money laundering activity<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Change in payments behaviour among CPMI countries from 2012 to 2018<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: BIS<\/p>\n

The rising consumer appetite for high-value notes also flies in the face of recent policy actions by several governments around the world.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, 19 European central banks stopped the production of 500 euro banknotes<\/a>. The European Central Bank earlier cited concerns about illicit activity<\/a> as the reason for withdrawing the bills from circulation.<\/p>\n

In 2016 India withdrew its two highest-denomination notes overnight, causing social unrest<\/a>. India\u2019s government later admitted that the move had also dampened growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cInnovation is making domestic payments increasingly convenient, instantaneous and ubiquitous\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While the battle over the use of cash between governments and citizens appears to be intensifying, there\u2019s no stopping the rise of electronic payments.<\/p>\n

Historically, the transfer of money from the bank account of a payer to that of the recipient could take days<\/a>. The US, the world\u2019s largest economy, is still struggling to speed up its payments<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But other countries are moving ahead. Fast retail payments systems, where the transfer of money takes place in near real-time, now exist in 45 jurisdictions, says the BIS.<\/p>\n

\u201cInnovation is making domestic payments increasingly convenient, instantaneous and ubiquitous,\u201d it says.<\/p>\n

And the evidence is that consumers also crave convenience in paying, the BIS says.<\/p>\n

This is reflected in the number of contactless cards per inhabitant rising rapidly in both advanced and emerging market economies.<\/p>\n

The value of card payments relative to GDP is increasing for all but a few CPMI jurisdictions, says the BIS, and is approaching 50 percent of GDP in some countries.<\/p>\n

And consumers are increasingly using debit or credit cards when abroad, the BIS says. Cross-border card payments have grown twice as fast as domestic payments since 2012, it reports.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t miss any more New Money Review content:\u00a0sign up here<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0for our newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite the rapid rise of digital payments, cash isn\u2019t on its way out yet. 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