{"id":3730,"date":"2018-05-01T08:40:01","date_gmt":"2018-05-01T07:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.newmoneyreview.com\/?p=3730"},"modified":"2019-02-08T16:11:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T15:11:47","slug":"bitcoin-in-contango","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/01\/bitcoin-in-contango\/","title":{"rendered":"In search of bitcoin’s future value"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin futures prices appear to be settling down to a small premium above the cryptocurrency\u2019s spot price. But by how much should futures prices differ from spot?<\/p>\n

According to financial theory, the price of a futures contract on a particular asset should move in tandem with the spot (current) price, but there will be a gap between the two.<\/p>\n

The gap, or \u201cbasis\u201d, reflects the collective costs faced by a futures seller, assuming that the seller wants to hedge the short position. These include the cost of buying and financing the asset, the cost of storing it until the delivery date, and any charges for insuring it.<\/p>\n

In theory, any divergence between this theoretical basis and the levels at which futures are trading should encourage specialist traders called arbitrageurs to step in and narrow the gap.<\/p>\n

One important element of the cost equation\u2014the financing rate for futures\u2014is determined by interest rate differentials. In other words, the futures seller assumes an interest cost for borrowing money to buy bitcoins, while adding back any interest received from the asset.<\/p>\n

Since bitcoins don\u2019t pay interest, the financing rate for a dollar-priced bitcoin futures contract should reflect the wholesale dollar interest rate over the life of the contract.<\/p>\n

Then, if interest rates were the sole determinant of futures prices, the bitcoin futures curve should be upward-sloping, or \u201cin contango\u201d, in the jargon of traders.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019d expect the normal shape of the bitcoin futures curve to be a slight contango.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This means that, in headline terms, the price of a bitcoin futures contract should be higher than the bitcoin spot price, and futures contracts of longer maturity should trade at steadily higher premia.<\/p>\n

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), both of which launched bitcoin futures in December, futures have generally traded at a premium to the prevailing market price for bitcoin, in line with what interest rates would predict.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019d expect the normal shape of the bitcoin futures curve to be a slight contango,\u201d Michael Mollet, director of product development at CBOE\u00a0Global Markets, told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

During the first quarter of 2018, CME\u2019s June bitcoin futures contract traded at a premium to the March contract, temporarily falling to a small discount twice during periods of a sharp decline in the cryptocurrency\u2019s price. Overall, the premium narrowed during the three-month period.\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cThe basis between the futures market and the spot market has tightened considerably since the launch of our contract,\u201d said Tim McCourt, CME\u2019s global head of equity products.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s been a relatively stable term structure and a clear interrelatedness between the futures market and the spot market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cit\u2019s too early to say what the exact parameter driving the relationship between the futures price and the spot price is,\u201d said McCourt.<\/p>\n

In theory, in addition to interest rate differentials, traders could build the storage and insurance costs for holding bitcoin into the premium of the futures price over the spot price.<\/p>\n

\u201cCustodial fees for cryptocurrencies are high\u2014anything from 0.5 to 1 percent a year.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Matt Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, a provider of cryptocurrency tracker products, explains his company\u2019s experience of these additional holding costs.<\/p>\n

\u201cCustodial fees for cryptocurrencies are high\u2014anything from 0.5 to 1 percent a year,\u201d Hougan told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Bitwise charges a 2.5 percent per annum management fee for its fund, which tracks an index of ten cryptocurrencies, weighted by their aggregate market capitalisations. The management fee includes the cost of custody.<\/p>\n

Bitwise has contracted a separate entity, Kingdom Trust, to hold its clients’ cryptocurrencies in cold storage (cold storage means the private keys needed to authorise a transaction are kept offline to reduce the risk of theft by a computer hacker).<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve only found one organisation willing to insure cryptocurrencies against hacking risk, over and above custody in cold storage, and that\u2019s Lloyd\u2019s of London. They charge 2-4 percent a year, which is higher than most people want to bear,\u201d said Hougan.<\/p>\n

\u201cBitcoin custody is a risky business. The risk of a hack wiping everything out is high.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One exchange executive pointed out the inherent difficulty in arriving at a notional cost for bitcoin custody.<\/p>\n

“It\u2019s not costless to store bitcoin, as mechanisms need to be in place to ensure that private keys are stored securely, and that cost should be baked into the relationship between futures prices and spot prices,” Timo Schlaefer, founder of bitcoin trading platform Crypto Facilities, told\u00a0New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

“It\u2019s hard to express the cost as a percentage though, since different players have different tolerances of custody risk. Some custodians charge 10 bps per month with a fairly hefty setup fee. That could add up to 200 bps in the first year,\u201d said Schlaefer.<\/p>\n

Another exchange executive, who requested anonymity, suggested that measuring the cost of insuring bitcoin against theft is even trickier.<\/p>\n

\u201cCustody is a risky business,” the executive said.<\/p>\n

“The risk of a single hack wiping everything out is high and you can\u2019t properly insure against it in the current market. An insurance company will add lots of exclusions and add pages of terms and conditions as a way to wiggle out when you need it the most,\u201d the executive said.<\/p>\n

In one well-publicised case, insurance company Massachusetts Bay refused to pay out<\/a> on a policy taken out by payments processor BitPay when BitPay suffered three separate hacks in late 2014.<\/p>\n

Massachusetts Bay justified its decision by pointing out that the email account of one of BitPay\u2019s business partners had been compromised. The business partner\u2019s email address was used to send fictitious emails to BitPay, which then authorised the outwards transfer of 5,000 bitcoins (worth around $47 million at today\u2019s prices).<\/p>\n

“There are multiple approaches at play in pricing bitcoin futures.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Another theoretical influence on the pricing of cryptocurrency futures is specific to this asset class. This factor, which works against the prevailing trend for a futures premium, is the possibility of a future fork of the currency.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf market participants expected a hard fork to occur in June, for example, you\u2019d expect the June future to trade at a pretty significant discount to the current price,\u201d Michael Mollet, director of product development at CBOE Global Markets, told New Money Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Collectively, these determinants of bitcoin futures prices are still in the process of working themselves out. In the meantime, futures quotes are likely to be influenced by a variety of different players, according to CME\u2019s Tim McCourt.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I would call access players in the futures market are probably more motivated by overall supply and demand than by the type of sophisticated pricing model you typically see for other financial futures contracts,\u201d said McCourt.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the other hand, market makers and liquidity providers, many of which have their own spot inventories of bitcoin, are using more of a fair value approach to price bitcoin futures. There are multiple approaches at play,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin futures prices appear to be settling down to a small premium above the cryptocurrency\u2019s spot price. But by how much should futures prices differ from spot? According to financial […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1012,1026],"tags":[1034,1065,1064,1061,1063,1060,1062],"class_list":{"0":"post-3730","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-exchange","8":"category-latest-slider","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-cboe","11":"tag-cme","12":"tag-contango","13":"tag-discount","14":"tag-futures","15":"tag-premium"},"yoast_head":"\nIn search of bitcoin's future value - New Money Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmoneyreview.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/01\/bitcoin-in-contango\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"In search of bitcoin's future value - New Money Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin futures prices appear to be settling down to a small premium above the cryptocurrency\u2019s spot price. 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